Balkans and Neighbors
The Balkans have had their borders changed
so many times over the centuries that many of the present and emerging
borders will continue to divide ethnic groups even as migration and
warfare scatter many other ethnic groups throughout the region. The
Balkans are spiderwebs of conflicting ethnic groups and historic claims.
Untangling these to the satisfaction of
all is a pleasant fantasy that will never be reality. The best that
can be expected is a shaky peace that will ultimately be made permanent
when the ethnic ties and claims are forgotten. This section briefly
explores some of the oustanding territorial claims and counterclaims of
the Balkan nations and their neighbors. Although few of these claims
are actual government policies, all represent the aspirations of
nationalists within the region. Given the strengths of nationalist
movements in the Balkans, these claims will be potential sources for
future conflicts in the region.
Albania: Albania has shakily started on the road to reform
after a half-century of Communist rule. In 1990, violent political
demonstrations in Tirane permitted President Ramiz Alia to remove several
hardline communists from power and start on democratic reforms. This
was not enough to prevent 57,000 Albanian "boat people" from
leaving the country for Italy from 1990 to August 1991. Italy has
since stepped up aid to Albania, but this was insufficient to permit the
Albanian government to prevent tragic food riots in December 1991. The
Albanian relationship with Yugoslavia/Serbia is difficult as the latter is
Albania's major trading partner and Albania does not want to criticize
Yugoslavia too harshly. However, Albanians are greatly angered by the
rough treatment of ethnic Albanians living in Kosovo and Macedonia by the
Serbian-dominated Yugoslav government. Albanian minorities in
Macedonia/Illiridia and Kosovo have long been agitiating for union with
"Greater Albania" and have received political support from
Albania.
Austria: Austria is presently suffering from a slow
resurgence of neo-Nazi sentiment spearheaded by the Freedom Party (FPO),
which made gains in the November 1991 regional elections on a platform of
anti-immigration. The Austrians have also been flooded with Croatian
refugees fleeing the fighting in their home state. Austrian
territorial ambitions go back to the Hapsburghs and encompass all of
Slovenia and parts of Italy surrounding Trieste, although none of these
ambitions are likely to be fulfilled in the forseeable future.
Bulgaria: Bulgaria has historical claims to the whole of
Macedonia, although at present Bulgarians are not pressing such claims,
preferring instead to keep the Balkans stable. Bulgaria has demanded
of Macedonia that the latter surrender any claims to Bulgarian Macedonian
provinces as a condition for recognition. In addition, Bulgarians
would like to obtain western Thrace from Greece, but a present mutual
defence pact with Greece against Turkey and potentially Macedonia would
preclude this. Bulgaria also has a substantial Turkish population
within its borders and this has caused ethnic strife and anti-Turk rioting
between Bulgarian and Turkish populations, who have a mutual disgust for
each other. The Bulgarian Communist government pursued its own
anti-Turkish pogrom from 1984 to 1989, causing 300,000 Bulgarian Turks to
flee to Turkey.
Croatia: Croatian nationalists have already made moves to
exercise their claims to Bosnia, and if possible, they would like to have
all of the former Yugoslav coast from Montenegro to Trieste.
Greece: Greece has had a running feud with Turkey for more
than a century, a feud which goes back to Ottoman domination of the
Balkans, and the Greco-Turk war of 1919-1922. Greece, quite simply,
covets Thrace out to Constantinople, Ionia to the Dardanelles, and
”enosis” with Crete. From the Balkans, Greece would like parts of
southern Albania known as Nothern Epirus and several Aegean islands. Also,
Greece has been quite vocal in preventing European Community recognition
of Macedonia until the latter changes its name to the Vardar Republic,
presumably to forestall any Macedonian claims on Greek Salonikan
territory, but also to legitimize its own claims to the whole of
Macedonia.
Hungary: The Hungarian people have scattered throughout
much of the Balkans and have not been treated well in the lands in which
they now live. Although the government of Hungary is not interested
in irredentism, Hungarian minorities in foreign lands could rise to assert
their ethnicity and demand assistance from Budapest. The Hungarians
in Transylvania were oppressed by Romanian "de-Maygarisation"
programs, possibly as revenge for the "Maygarization of the Vlachs"
practiced when Hungary ruled Transylvania. Currently, the Hungarian
Transylvanians, who helped to start the 1989 revolution against Ceausescu
are petitioning for their own cultural identity, a sore point between
Hungary and Romania. Other Hungarians exist in concentrations in
Vojvodina in northern Serbia, and the future of these people under Serbian
rule has yet to be determined.
Iran and the Middle East: The tribulations of a
Muslim majority in Bosnia-Hercegovina prompted Iranian spiritual leader
Ali Khameni to call on all Islamic nations to assist Bosnia-Hercegovina to
become an Islamic state in Europe. In August 1992, the United Nations
was under pressure from several Islamic nations to provide military
assistance to Bosnia-Hercegovina. The Islamic nations of the Middle
East have little political interest in a distant European region fighting
for independence, but the religious ties have already been tenuously used
as a political hammer to increase the international influence of these
nations.
Israel: Israel may offer humanitarian aid to Jews within
former Yugoslavia as they did for former Soviet and Ethiopian Jews, but
otherwise, Israel has no interest in the region.
Italy: Italy has no territorial claims on the Balkans,
other than the Dalmatian coast of Croatia. Italy at present is
content to accept its role as Balkan economic and spiritual savior, a role
it filled by accepting many Albanian refugees during the summer exodus of
1991. Acting as savior would also give Italy economic dominance over
the region.
Macedonia/Vardar Republic: One of the dreams of
former Yugoslav leader Josef "Tito" Broz was to create a
"Greater Macedonia" incorporating the traditional regions of
Macedonia which were under the dominion of Bulgaria and Greece. Much
of the current tension between Bulgaria, Greece, and Macedonia over
Macedonia's name is based in Bulgarian and Greek fears that Macedonia may
try to press its claims to "Greater Macedonia." The
independence of Macedonia in January 1992 angered Greece, which believed
that the very name of Macedonia indicated a desire to press territorial
claims to Salonika (Greek Macedonia). Even Bulgaria, which recognized
Macedonian independence early on had concerns about territorial claims on
its Macedonian provinces. These two nations have been quite vocal in
preventing Macedonia from achieving international recognition, demanding
that Macedonia change its name to the Vardar republic. Also, Albanikos
within Macedonia had been agitating for independence and in April declared
the independent republic of Iliridia in northwest Macedonia.
Romania: Romania is still pulling itself out of the tomb
dug by Ceausescu and is dealing with rumors of a "false
revolution" which installed anti-Ceausescu communists in power as the
National Salvation Front. Presently, Romanian territorial claims
encompass the former Soviet republic of Moldova, which used to be Romanian
Bessarabia.
Russia and the Ukraine: The new Commonwealth of
Independent States remains troubled by internal disputes and an economic
nightmare left behind by the previous communist governments and its focus
is on rebuilding its political and economic integrity. Its present
concern with the Balkans centres on Romania and Moldova. Moldova, as
stated above, used to be Romanian Bessarabia, but was ceded to the Soviet
Union in 1940. Moldova is heavily populated with Vlach descendants
who have been agitating for unification with Romania. This has upset
the Russians and Ukranians living in the region, who have formed the
self-proclaimed Dnestr Republic. Several skirmishes occurred between
Moldovans and Dnestrians in early 1992, and peace negotiations between
Russian, Ukranian, Moldovan, and Romanian diplomats have been unable to
reach a peaceful resolution. More on the battles in the Dnestr
republic can be found in the Red Embers
Scenario Pack, which covers conflicts in the Commonwealth
of Independent States and former Soviet republics. Another possible area
of concern is the Black Sea Fleet and other disputes between Russia and
the Ukraine. If the Russian and Ukranian governments can finally
settle the debate over title to the Black Sea Fleet, then there may be
impacts on the other Black Sea nations like Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey. Also,
the Ukranians may turn towards the Balkans to assist their "Fellow
Slavs" should such assistance be required. In fact, Ukranians
have been part of the UN peacekeepers stationed in Sarajevo since August
1992.
Serbia: In the quest for Serboslavia, or Greater Serbia,
Serbian nationalists have claimed Vojvodina, Kosovo, much of Croatia, all
of Bosnia-Hercegovina, and bits and pieces from their Balkan neighbors,
such as the Baranya region of Hungary, the Serb-dominated regions of
Romania, and Independent, Bulgarian, and Greek Macedonia. At present,
Serbs have their hands full trying to keep the Federated Republic of
Yugoslavia together.
Slovenia: Slovenian nationalists would like to claim
Trieste, as heirs of an outstanding Yugoslav claim to the area. Also,
Slovenians have historical claims to the Carinthian region of Austria.
Turkey: Historically a major ruler of the Balkans, Turkey
presently has its own problems with Kurdish insurgency, border and water
rights arguments with Syria and Iraq, aggravating squabbles with petulant
Greece, concerns about Turkish minorities in Bulgaria, rising power of
Islamic fundamentalists, and Armenian ASALA terrorists. It is quite a
list of problems. Only the problems with Greece, Bulgaria, and Armenia
could directly impact the Balkans, although these nations might become
adventurous if Turkey's attention were diverted to fighting Kurds,
Syrians, or Iraqis. Greek and Bulgarian claims against Turkey have
already been examined. Armenian claims go back to Ottoman military
operations in Armenia from 1915 to 1923, where Armenians claimed Ottoman
forces engaged in genocide, killing between 600,000 and 1 million
Armenians. The Turks claim the deaths were incidental to the
fighting, citing their own casualties of 2 million Turks, and the deaths
were not part of a genocide program. The Armenian Secret Army for the
Liberation of Armenia (ASALA) and other terrorist groups have been
assassinating Turkish politicians since 1975 over the Armenian genocide.